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Team Rhino vs PSV Wellingara — GFA League 2020

Team Rhino
Team Rhino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
Unknown 59'
5/3/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Team Rhino36%
×Draw34%
PSV Wellingara31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Rhino
0.90
PSV Wellingara
0.81

Team Rhino creates 11% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Team Rhino
0.87
PSV Wellingara
0.67

allows per match

Team Rhino
0.95
PSV Wellingara
0.93

finishing

Team Rhino+0.00on par
PSV Wellingara+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Rhino ↓

PSV Wellingara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Team Rhino or draw
69%
Team Rhino or PSV Wellingara
66%
Draw or PSV Wellingara
64%

Winning margin

Team Rhino wins by 2+
13%
PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Team Rhino 1+ goals
59%
Team Rhino 2+ goals
23%
Team Rhino 3+ goals
6%
PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
56%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
19%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Team Rhino (draw refunded)
54%
PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Rhino at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

PSV Wellingara away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Rhino attack 0.87 + PSV Wellingara defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

PSV Wellingara attack 0.67 + Team Rhino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Team Rhino scores more
36%
level
34%
PSV Wellingara scores more
31%

Team Rhino at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Team Rhino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Team Rhino 0–1 PSV Wellingara

PSV Wellingara beat Team Rhino 1-0 in GFA League on May 3, 2023.

Goals: ? (59').