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Team Rhino vs Medina United — GFA League 2020

Team Rhino
Team Rhino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Medina United
Medina United
3/23/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Team Rhino23%
×Draw31%
Medina United45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Rhino
0.73
Medina United
1.14

Medina United creates 56% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Team Rhino
0.87
Medina United
1.33

allows per match

Team Rhino
0.95
Medina United
0.60

finishing

Team Rhino+0.00on par
Medina United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Rhino ↓

Medina United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Team Rhino or draw
55%
Team Rhino or Medina United
69%
Draw or Medina United
77%

Winning margin

Team Rhino wins by 2+
7%
Medina United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Team Rhino 1+ goals
52%
Team Rhino 2+ goals
17%
Team Rhino 3+ goals
4%
Medina United 1+ goals
68%
Medina United 2+ goals
32%
Medina United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Team Rhino (draw refunded)
34%
Medina United (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Rhino at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Medina United away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Rhino attack 0.87 + Medina United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Medina United attack 1.33 + Team Rhino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Team Rhino scores more
23%
level
31%
Medina United scores more
45%

Medina United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Medina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team Rhino vs Medina United

Medina United beat Team Rhino 1-0 in GFA League on March 23, 2026.