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Team Rhino vs Hart Acedemy — GFA League 2020

Team Rhino
Team Rhino
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
2/8/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Team Rhino36%
×Draw30%
Hart Acedemy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Rhino
1.05
Hart Acedemy
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Team Rhino
0.87
Hart Acedemy
1.07

allows per match

Team Rhino
0.95
Hart Acedemy
1.23

finishing

Team Rhino+0.00on par
Hart Acedemy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Rhino ↓

Hart Acedemy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Team Rhino or draw
66%
Team Rhino or Hart Acedemy
70%
Draw or Hart Acedemy
64%

Winning margin

Team Rhino wins by 2+
14%
Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Team Rhino 1+ goals
65%
Team Rhino 2+ goals
28%
Team Rhino 3+ goals
9%
Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
64%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
27%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Team Rhino (draw refunded)
51%
Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Rhino at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Hart Acedemy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Rhino attack 0.87 + Hart Acedemy defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Hart Acedemy attack 1.07 + Team Rhino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Team Rhino scores more
36%
level
30%
Hart Acedemy scores more
34%

Team Rhino at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Team Rhino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Team Rhino 2–4 Hart Acedemy

Hart Acedemy beat Team Rhino 4-2 in GFA League on February 8, 2025.