Team Rhino 0–0 Dutch Lions: Result & Stats

Team Rhino

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dutch Lions

7/2/2025

GFA League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Team Rhino40%

×Draw32%

Dutch Lions28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team RhinoExpected goals in this matchDutch Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.82

Team Rhino

1.05

Dutch Lions

0.82

Team Rhino creates 28% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

0.87

creates per match

0.70

0.95

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Team Rhino

0.87

Dutch Lions

0.70

allows per match

Team Rhino

0.95

Dutch Lions

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team Rhino+0.00on par

Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Rhino ↓

Dutch Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Team Rhino or draw

72%

Team Rhino or Dutch Lions

68%

Draw or Dutch Lions

60%

Winning margin

Team Rhino wins by 2+

16%

Dutch Lions wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Team Rhino 1+ goals

65%

Team Rhino 2+ goals

28%

Team Rhino 3+ goals

9%

Dutch Lions 1+ goals

56%

Dutch Lions 2+ goals

20%

Dutch Lions 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Team Rhino (draw refunded)

59%

Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Rhino at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Rhino attack 0.87 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Team Rhino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Team Rhino scores more

40%

level

32%

Dutch Lions scores more

28%

Team Rhino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Team Rhino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff