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Team Nuova Florida vs Turris — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
FT
0 – 3
Turris
Turris
12/7/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 15Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Team Nuova Florida31%
×Draw25%
Turris43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Nuova Florida
1.25
Turris
1.51

Turris creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Team Nuova Florida
1.74
Turris
2.08

allows per match

Team Nuova Florida
0.94
Turris
0.77

finishing

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par
Turris+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Nuova Florida ↓

Turris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Team Nuova Florida or draw
57%
Team Nuova Florida or Turris
75%
Draw or Turris
69%

Winning margin

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
13%
Turris wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
71%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
36%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
13%
Turris 1+ goals
78%
Turris 2+ goals
44%
Turris 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
42%
Turris (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Nuova Florida at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Turris away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.74 + Turris defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

Turris attack 2.08 + Team Nuova Florida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Team Nuova Florida scores more
31%
level
25%
Turris scores more
43%

Turris at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team Nuova Florida vs Turris

Turris beat Team Nuova Florida 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea).