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Team Nuova Florida vs Torres — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
FT
0 – 1
Torres
Torres
11/30/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 14Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Team Nuova Florida36%
×Draw28%
Torres36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Nuova Florida
1.17
Torres
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 29 away

creates per match

Team Nuova Florida
1.74
Torres
1.41

allows per match

Team Nuova Florida
0.94
Torres
0.59

finishing

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par
Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Nuova Florida ↓

Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Team Nuova Florida or draw
64%
Team Nuova Florida or Torres
72%
Draw or Torres
64%

Winning margin

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
15%
Torres wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
69%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
33%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
11%
Torres 1+ goals
69%
Torres 2+ goals
33%
Torres 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
50%
Torres (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Nuova Florida at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Torres away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.74 + Torres defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Torres attack 1.41 + Team Nuova Florida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Team Nuova Florida scores more
36%
level
28%
Torres scores more
36%

Team Nuova Florida at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Team Nuova Florida vs Torres

Torres beat Team Nuova Florida 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Mazzucchi (Ardea).