Team Nuova Florida 2–0 Real Monterotondo

Team Nuova Florida

FT

2 – 0

Real Monterotondo

11/14/2021

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Stadio Marco Mazzucchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Team Nuova Florida54%

×Draw24%

Real Monterotondo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team Nuova FloridaExpected goals in this matchReal Monterotondo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.95

Team Nuova Florida

1.68

Real Monterotondo

0.95

Team Nuova Florida creates 77% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 69 away

1.74

creates per match

0.97

0.94

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Team Nuova Florida

1.74

Real Monterotondo

0.97

allows per match

Team Nuova Florida

0.94

Real Monterotondo

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Nuova Florida ↓

Real Monterotondo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Team Nuova Florida or draw

79%

Team Nuova Florida or Real Monterotondo

76%

Draw or Real Monterotondo

46%

Winning margin

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+

30%

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals

81%

Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals

50%

Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals

24%

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

61%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

25%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)

72%

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Nuova Florida at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.74 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Team Nuova Florida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Team Nuova Florida scores more

54%

level

24%

Real Monterotondo scores more

21%

Team Nuova Florida at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff