Team Nuova Florida 3–1 Carbonia: Result & Stats

Team Nuova Florida

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Carbonia

4/10/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 28Stadio Marco Mazzucchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Team Nuova Florida59%

×Draw22%

Carbonia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Team Nuova FloridaExpected goals in this matchCarbonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.03

Team Nuova Florida

1.96

Carbonia

1.03

Team Nuova Florida creates 90% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

1.74

creates per match

1.12

0.94

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Team Nuova Florida

1.74

Carbonia

1.12

allows per match

Team Nuova Florida

0.94

Carbonia

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Carbonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Nuova Florida ↓

Carbonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Team Nuova Florida or draw

81%

Team Nuova Florida or Carbonia

78%

Draw or Carbonia

41%

Winning margin

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+

35%

Carbonia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals

86%

Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals

58%

Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals

31%

Carbonia 1+ goals

64%

Carbonia 2+ goals

28%

Carbonia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)

75%

Carbonia (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Nuova Florida at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Carbonia away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.74 + Carbonia defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Team Nuova Florida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Team Nuova Florida scores more

59%

level

22%

Carbonia scores more

19%

Team Nuova Florida at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff