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Team Helm vs Rakvere Tarvas — Cup 2020

Team Helm
Team Helm
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvasadvanced
8/25/2022CupCup · Round of 32Tartu Sepa tänava staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Team Helm62%
×Draw16%
Rakvere Tarvas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Helm
3.66
Rakvere Tarvas
2.25

Team Helm creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Team Helm
5.71
Rakvere Tarvas
1.80

allows per match

Team Helm
2.71
Rakvere Tarvas
1.60

finishing

Team Helm+0.00on par
Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Helm ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Team Helm or draw
78%
Team Helm or Rakvere Tarvas
84%
Draw or Rakvere Tarvas
38%

Winning margin

Team Helm wins by 2+
44%
Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Team Helm 1+ goals
97%
Team Helm 2+ goals
87%
Team Helm 3+ goals
68%
Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
89%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
65%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Team Helm (draw refunded)
73%
Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Helm at home — creates 5.71, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Helm attack 5.71 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 3.66

Rakvere Tarvas attack 1.80 + Team Helm defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Team Helm scores more
62%
level
16%
Rakvere Tarvas scores more
22%

Team Helm at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Team Helm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Team Helm 1–4 Rakvere Tarvas

Rakvere Tarvas beat Team Helm 4-1 in Cup on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion in Tartu.