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Team Helm vs Pärnu — Cup 2020

Team Helm
Team Helmadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
7/29/2023CupCup · Round of 64Tartu Sepa tänava staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Team Helm85%
×Draw8%
Pärnu7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Helm
5.02
Pärnu
1.52

Team Helm creates 230% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Team Helm
5.71
Pärnu
0.33

allows per match

Team Helm
2.71
Pärnu
4.33

finishing

Team Helm+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Helm ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
94%6%3.5
86%14%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Team Helm or draw
93%
Team Helm or Pärnu
92%
Draw or Pärnu
15%

Winning margin

Team Helm wins by 2+
72%
Pärnu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Team Helm 1+ goals
99%
Team Helm 2+ goals
95%
Team Helm 3+ goals
84%
Pärnu 1+ goals
78%
Pärnu 2+ goals
45%
Pärnu 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Team Helm (draw refunded)
93%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Helm at home — creates 5.71, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Helm attack 5.71 + Pärnu defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 5.02

Pärnu attack 0.33 + Team Helm defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Team Helm scores more
85%
level
8%
Pärnu scores more
7%

Team Helm at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Team Helm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Team Helm 2–0 Pärnu

Team Helm beat Pärnu 2-0 in Cup on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion in Tartu.