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Team BJMC vs Saif — Premier League 2019

Team BJMC
Team BJMC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Saif
Saif
1/24/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Team BJMC21%
×Draw23%
Saif56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team BJMC
0.98
Saif
1.78

Saif creates 82% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 37 away

creates per match

Team BJMC
0.58
Saif
2.32

allows per match

Team BJMC
1.25
Saif
1.38

finishing

Team BJMC+0.00on par
Saif+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team BJMC ↓

Saif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Team BJMC or draw
44%
Team BJMC or Saif
77%
Draw or Saif
79%

Winning margin

Team BJMC wins by 2+
7%
Saif wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Team BJMC 1+ goals
62%
Team BJMC 2+ goals
26%
Team BJMC 3+ goals
8%
Saif 1+ goals
83%
Saif 2+ goals
53%
Saif 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Team BJMC (draw refunded)
27%
Saif (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team BJMC at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Saif away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Saif defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.98

Saif attack 2.32 + Team BJMC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Team BJMC scores more
21%
level
23%
Saif scores more
56%

Saif at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Saif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Team BJMC 0–1 Saif

Saif beat Team BJMC 1-0 in Premier League on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).