Tbilisi City 1–0 Shukura: Result & Stats

Tbilisi City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shukura

B. Khojanashvili 70' (pen)

8/29/2020

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd RoundTbilisi Olympic Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tbilisi City35%

×Draw24%

Shukura41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tbilisi CityExpected goals in this matchShukura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.60

Tbilisi City

1.45

Shukura

1.60

Shukura creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.40

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Tbilisi City

2.40

Shukura

1.00

allows per match

Tbilisi City

2.20

Shukura

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tbilisi City+0.00on par

Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tbilisi City ↓

Shukura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tbilisi City or draw

59%

Tbilisi City or Shukura

76%

Draw or Shukura

65%

Winning margin

Tbilisi City wins by 2+

16%

Shukura wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tbilisi City 1+ goals

77%

Tbilisi City 2+ goals

42%

Tbilisi City 3+ goals

18%

Shukura 1+ goals

80%

Shukura 2+ goals

47%

Shukura 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tbilisi City (draw refunded)

46%

Shukura (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tbilisi City at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tbilisi City attack 2.40 + Shukura defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shukura attack 1.00 + Tbilisi City defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tbilisi City scores more

35%

level

24%

Shukura scores more

41%

Shukura at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Jikia← Tafarel

60'

Jefinho← G. Chelebadze

70'

I. Komakhidze← G. Kurmashvili

70'

B. KhojanashviliPenalty

83'

N. Bibilashvili← B. Khojanashvili

90+3'

R. Omanadze← K. Keburia

Tbilisi

Shukura

Manager: G. Kavtaradze

83'▲N. Bibilashvili←▼B. Khojanashvili

90+3'▲R. Omanadze←▼K. Keburia

Tbilisi City substitutes

BibilashviliOmanadzeTchaavaTabeshadzeBeroshviliSekoKaldani

Manager: G. Shashiashvili

46'▲D. Jikia←▼Tafarel

60'▲Jefinho←▼G. Chelebadze

70'▲I. Komakhidze←▼G. Kurmashvili

Shukura substitutes

JikiaJefinhoKomakhidzeTebidzeAshortiaPartenadze

Match Recap: Tbilisi City vs Shukura

Tbilisi City beat Shukura 1-0 in David Kipiani Cup on August 29, 2020.

Goals: B. Khojanashvili (70' pen).

The match was played at Tbilisi Olympic Complex in Tbilisi.

Tbilisi City vs Shukura — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tbilisi City vs Shukura