Tbilisi City 3–2 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Tbilisi City

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Samtredia

K. Keburia 41'

B. Khojanashvili 16', 5'

D. Targamadze 65'

Diego Diz 49'

9/20/2020

David Kipiani Cup · 8th FinalsStadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tbilisi City43%

×Draw21%

Samtredia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tbilisi CityExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.96

Tbilisi City

2.13

Samtredia

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.40

creates per match

1.71

2.20

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Tbilisi City

2.40

Samtredia

1.71

allows per match

Tbilisi City

2.20

Samtredia

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tbilisi City+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tbilisi City ↓

Samtredia →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Tbilisi City or draw

63%

Tbilisi City or Samtredia

79%

Draw or Samtredia

57%

Winning margin

Tbilisi City wins by 2+

24%

Samtredia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tbilisi City 1+ goals

88%

Tbilisi City 2+ goals

63%

Tbilisi City 3+ goals

35%

Samtredia 1+ goals

86%

Samtredia 2+ goals

58%

Samtredia 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Tbilisi City (draw refunded)

54%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tbilisi City at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tbilisi City attack 2.40 + Samtredia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.13

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Tbilisi City defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tbilisi City scores more

43%

level

21%

Samtredia scores more

37%

Tbilisi City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tbilisi City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

B. Khojanashvili

16'

B. Khojanashvili

41'

K. Keburia

46'

K. Sambou← A. Chakvetadze

49'

Diego Diz

60'

B. Khojanashvili

61'

L. Imnadze← G. Jgerenaia

61'

L. Kochladze← S. Kerdzevadze

65'

D. Targamadze

70'

S. Inkoom

71'

G. Shubitidze← K. Keburia

76'

D. Kimeridze← B. Murusidze

87'

N. Kurbanov

87'

87'

89'

90+7'

90+1'

L. Kaldani← B. Khojanashvili

Tbilisi

Samtredia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Khojanash

⚽

▼

Keburia

Manager: G. Kavtaradze

71'▲G. Shubitidze←▼K. Keburia

76'▲D. Kimeridze←▼B. Murusidze

90+1'▲L. Kaldani←▼B. Khojanashvili

Tbilisi City substitutes

ShubitidzeKimeridzeKaldaniBeroshviliTchaavaSekoTabeshadzeOmanadze

Manager: K. Katcharava

46'▲K. Sambou←▼A. Chakvetadze

61'▲L. Imnadze←▼G. Jgerenaia

61'▲L. Kochladze←▼S. Kerdzevadze

Samtredia substitutes

SambouImnadzeKochladzeGogeishviliLukavaRukhaiaRobakidzeNadiradze