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Tbilisi City vs Gori — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Tbilisi City
Tbilisi City
FT
1 – 2
Gori
Gori
5/26/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tbilisi City38%
×Draw22%
Gori39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tbilisi City
1.76
Gori
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tbilisi City
2.40
Gori
1.38

allows per match

Tbilisi City
2.20
Gori
1.13

finishing

Tbilisi City+0.00on par
Gori+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tbilisi City ↓

Gori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tbilisi City or draw
61%
Tbilisi City or Gori
78%
Draw or Gori
62%

Winning margin

Tbilisi City wins by 2+
20%
Gori wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tbilisi City 1+ goals
83%
Tbilisi City 2+ goals
52%
Tbilisi City 3+ goals
26%
Gori 1+ goals
83%
Gori 2+ goals
53%
Gori 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tbilisi City (draw refunded)
49%
Gori (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tbilisi City at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Gori away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tbilisi City attack 2.40 + Gori defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.76

Gori attack 1.38 + Tbilisi City defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tbilisi City scores more
38%
level
22%
Gori scores more
39%

Gori at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tbilisi City vs Gori

Gori beat Tbilisi City 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on May 26, 2022.