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Tbilisi City vs Chikhura Sachkhere — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Tbilisi City
Tbilisi City
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhereadvanced
9/26/2020David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Quarter-finalsStadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tbilisi City35%
×Draw19%
Chikhura Sachkhere46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tbilisi City
2.12
Chikhura Sachkhere
2.44

Chikhura Sachkhere creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tbilisi City
2.40
Chikhura Sachkhere
2.67

allows per match

Tbilisi City
2.20
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.83

finishing

Tbilisi City+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tbilisi City ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Tbilisi City or draw
54%
Tbilisi City or Chikhura Sachkhere
81%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
65%

Winning margin

Tbilisi City wins by 2+
19%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tbilisi City 1+ goals
88%
Tbilisi City 2+ goals
62%
Tbilisi City 3+ goals
35%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
91%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
70%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tbilisi City (draw refunded)
43%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tbilisi City at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tbilisi City attack 2.40 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 2.67 + Tbilisi City defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tbilisi City scores more
35%
level
19%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
46%

Chikhura Sachkhere at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chikhura Sachkhere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tbilisi City vs Chikhura Sachkhere

Chikhura Sachkhere beat Tbilisi City 5-2 in David Kipiani Cup on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.