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Tayport vs Buckie Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Tayport
Tayport
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundThe Canniepairt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tayport28%
×Draw21%
Buckie Thistle51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tayport
1.55
Buckie Thistle
2.15

Buckie Thistle creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tayport
1.67
Buckie Thistle
1.64

allows per match

Tayport
2.67
Buckie Thistle
1.43

finishing

Tayport+0.00on par
Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tayport ↓

Buckie Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tayport or draw
49%
Tayport or Buckie Thistle
79%
Draw or Buckie Thistle
72%

Winning margin

Tayport wins by 2+
13%
Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Tayport 1+ goals
79%
Tayport 2+ goals
46%
Tayport 3+ goals
20%
Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
88%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
63%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Tayport (draw refunded)
35%
Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tayport at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tayport attack 1.67 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Tayport defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tayport scores more
28%
level
21%
Buckie Thistle scores more
51%

Buckie Thistle at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Buckie Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Tayport 0–4 Buckie Thistle

Buckie Thistle beat Tayport 4-0 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at The Canniepairt in Tayport.