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Tay Ninh vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
FT
1 – 1
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
6/25/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 4Sân vận động Tây Nin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tay Ninh39%
×Draw32%
Pho Hien29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tay Ninh
1.00
Pho Hien
0.82

Tay Ninh creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tay Ninh
1.38
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

Tay Ninh
0.50
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

Tay Ninh+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tay Ninh ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tay Ninh or draw
71%
Tay Ninh or Pho Hien
68%
Draw or Pho Hien
61%

Winning margin

Tay Ninh wins by 2+
15%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tay Ninh 1+ goals
63%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
26%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
8%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
56%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
20%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
57%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tay Ninh at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tay Ninh attack 1.38 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.00

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Tay Ninh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tay Ninh scores more
39%
level
32%
Pho Hien scores more
29%

Tay Ninh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tay Ninh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Tay Ninh 1–1 Pho Hien

Tay Ninh and Pho Hien drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on June 25, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tây Nin in Tay Ninh.