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Taverne vs Uzwil — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Taverne
Taverne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uzwil
Uzwil
2/24/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Campo comunale Taverne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Taverne53%
×Draw22%
Uzwil25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taverne
1.91
Uzwil
1.23

Taverne creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 58 away

creates per match

Taverne
1.38
Uzwil
1.36

allows per match

Taverne
1.10
Uzwil
2.43

finishing

Taverne+0.00on par
Uzwil+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taverne ↓

Uzwil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Taverne or draw
75%
Taverne or Uzwil
78%
Draw or Uzwil
47%

Winning margin

Taverne wins by 2+
30%
Uzwil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Taverne 1+ goals
85%
Taverne 2+ goals
57%
Taverne 3+ goals
30%
Uzwil 1+ goals
71%
Uzwil 2+ goals
35%
Uzwil 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Taverne (draw refunded)
68%
Uzwil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taverne at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Uzwil away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.43 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taverne attack 1.38 + Uzwil defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.91

Uzwil attack 1.36 + Taverne defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Taverne scores more
53%
level
22%
Uzwil scores more
25%

Taverne at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Taverne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taverne 1 – 1 Uzwil

Taverne and Uzwil drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo comunale Taverne in Taverne.