Taverne 1–2 Lugano II: Result & Stats

Taverne

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lugano II

4/1/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Campo comunale Taverne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Taverne41%

×Draw25%

Lugano II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TaverneExpected goals in this matchLugano II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.37

Taverne

1.54

Lugano II

1.37

Taverne creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

1.38

creates per match

1.64

1.10

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Taverne

1.38

Lugano II

1.64

allows per match

Taverne

1.10

Lugano II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taverne+0.00on par

Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taverne ↓

Lugano II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Taverne or draw

66%

Taverne or Lugano II

75%

Draw or Lugano II

59%

Winning margin

Taverne wins by 2+

20%

Lugano II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Taverne 1+ goals

79%

Taverne 2+ goals

45%

Taverne 3+ goals

20%

Lugano II 1+ goals

75%

Lugano II 2+ goals

40%

Lugano II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Taverne (draw refunded)

55%

Lugano II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taverne at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taverne attack 1.38 + Lugano II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lugano II attack 1.64 + Taverne defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Taverne scores more

41%

level

25%

Lugano II scores more

34%

Taverne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Taverne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff