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Tauro FC vs Veraguas — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Tauro FC
Tauro FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Veraguas
Veraguas
10/16/2021Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 11Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Tauro FC49%
×Draw26%
Veraguas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauro FC
1.47
Veraguas
0.97

Tauro FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 77 away

creates per match

Tauro FC
1.33
Veraguas
1.08

allows per match

Tauro FC
0.86
Veraguas
1.60

finishing

Tauro FC+0.00on par
Veraguas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauro FC ↓

Veraguas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tauro FC or draw
75%
Tauro FC or Veraguas
74%
Draw or Veraguas
51%

Winning margin

Tauro FC wins by 2+
24%
Veraguas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tauro FC 1+ goals
77%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
43%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
18%
Veraguas 1+ goals
62%
Veraguas 2+ goals
25%
Veraguas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tauro FC (draw refunded)
66%
Veraguas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauro FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 138 matches

Veraguas away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauro FC attack 1.33 + Veraguas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Veraguas attack 1.08 + Tauro FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tauro FC scores more
49%
level
26%
Veraguas scores more
25%

Tauro FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tauro FC vs Veraguas

Tauro FC beat Veraguas 2-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz in Ciudad de Panamá.