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Tauro FC vs Santa Gema FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Tauro FC
Tauro FC
FT
3 – 0
Santa Gema FC
Santa Gema FC
10/17/2018Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 14Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez (Ciudad de Panamá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tauro FC60%
×Draw24%
Santa Gema FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauro FC
1.72
Santa Gema FC
0.77

Tauro FC creates 123% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tauro FC
1.33
Santa Gema FC
0.67

allows per match

Tauro FC
0.86
Santa Gema FC
2.11

finishing

Tauro FC+0.00on par
Santa Gema FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauro FC ↓

Santa Gema FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tauro FC or draw
84%
Tauro FC or Santa Gema FC
76%
Draw or Santa Gema FC
40%

Winning margin

Tauro FC wins by 2+
34%
Santa Gema FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tauro FC 1+ goals
82%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
51%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
25%
Santa Gema FC 1+ goals
54%
Santa Gema FC 2+ goals
18%
Santa Gema FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tauro FC (draw refunded)
78%
Santa Gema FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauro FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 138 matches

Santa Gema FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauro FC attack 1.33 + Santa Gema FC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

Santa Gema FC attack 0.67 + Tauro FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tauro FC scores more
60%
level
24%
Santa Gema FC scores more
16%

Tauro FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tauro FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tauro FC vs Santa Gema FC

Tauro FC beat Santa Gema FC 3-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez (Ciudad de Panamá).