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Tauras vs Viltis Vilnius — Cup 2020

Tauras
Tauras
FT
1 – 2
Viltis Vilnius
Viltis Vilnius
4/25/2023CupCup · 1st RoundFK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tauras13%
×Draw15%
Viltis Vilnius72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauras
1.17
Viltis Vilnius
2.92

Viltis Vilnius creates 150% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tauras
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
3.00

allows per match

Tauras
2.83
Viltis Vilnius
1.00

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par
Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Viltis Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Tauras or draw
28%
Tauras or Viltis Vilnius
85%
Draw or Viltis Vilnius
87%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+
5%
Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals
69%
Tauras 2+ goals
33%
Tauras 3+ goals
11%
Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals
94%
Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals
78%
Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)
15%
Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Viltis Vilnius away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 1.33 + Viltis Vilnius defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.00 + Tauras defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Tauras scores more
13%
level
15%
Viltis Vilnius scores more
72%

Viltis Vilnius at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Viltis Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tauras vs Viltis Vilnius

Viltis Vilnius beat Tauras 2-1 in Cup on April 25, 2023.

The match was played at FK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Tauragė.