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Tauras vs Šilas — Cup 2020

Tauras
Tauras
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Šilas
Šilasadvanced
5/17/2022CupCup · Round of 16FK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tauras6%
×Draw10%
Šilas84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauras
1.06
Šilas
3.81

Šilas creates 259% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tauras
1.33
Šilas
4.80

allows per match

Tauras
2.83
Šilas
0.80

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Tauras or draw
16%
Tauras or Šilas
90%
Draw or Šilas
94%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+
2%
Šilas wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals
65%
Tauras 2+ goals
29%
Tauras 3+ goals
9%
Šilas 1+ goals
98%
Šilas 2+ goals
88%
Šilas 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)
7%
Šilas (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Šilas away — creates 4.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 1.33 + Šilas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Šilas attack 4.80 + Tauras defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tauras scores more
6%
level
10%
Šilas scores more
84%

Šilas at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tauras 1–4 Šilas

Šilas beat Tauras 4-1 in Cup on May 17, 2022.

The match was played at FK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Tauragė.