Tauras 0–1 Neptūną Klaipėda: Result & Stats

Tauras

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Neptūną Klaipėda

O. Dovgij 48'

10/5/2024

1 Lyga · Round 25Vytauto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tauras45%

×Draw22%

Neptūną Klaipėda33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TaurasExpected goals in this matchNeptūną Klaipėda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.59

Tauras

1.88

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.59

Tauras creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 80 away

2.27

creates per match

2.05

1.14

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tauras

2.27

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.05

allows per match

Tauras

1.14

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Tauras or draw

67%

Tauras or Neptūną Klaipėda

78%

Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda

55%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+

24%

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals

85%

Tauras 2+ goals

56%

Tauras 3+ goals

29%

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals

80%

Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals

47%

Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)

58%

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 2.27 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.88

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Tauras defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tauras scores more

45%

level

22%

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more

33%

Tauras at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

D. Bondar

29'

R. Gramba← R. Gramba

48'

O. Dovgij

48'

O. DovgijMissed penalty

63'

L. Traore← L. Traore

63'

K. Aderounmu← K. Aderounmu

66'

N. Vyzdryk

68'

D. Omokhoa Ilevbare← D. Omokhoa Ilevbare

68'

D. Zubauskas← J. Kasparavicius

79'

M. Dumalakas← M. Dumalakas

83'

A. Morkunas

90+4'

T. Jonusas← T. Jonusas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff