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Tauras vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Tauras
Tauras
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dainava
Dainava
I. Sereda 78'
A. Radchenko 59'
I. Kotov 84'
3/28/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 3Dirbtines Dangos Stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tauras46%
×Draw24%
Dainava30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauras
1.70
Dainava
1.33

Tauras creates 28% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tauras
2.27
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Tauras
1.14
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tauras or draw
70%
Tauras or Dainava
76%
Draw or Dainava
54%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+
24%
Dainava wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals
82%
Tauras 2+ goals
51%
Tauras 3+ goals
24%
Dainava 1+ goals
74%
Dainava 2+ goals
38%
Dainava 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)
61%
Dainava (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 2.27 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.70

Dainava attack 1.53 + Tauras defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tauras scores more
46%
level
24%
Dainava scores more
30%

Tauras at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
A. Radchenko
78'
I. Sereda
84'
I. Kotov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Tauras 2–1 Dainava

Tauras beat Dainava 2-1 in 1 Lyga on March 28, 2026.

Goals: A. Radchenko (59'), I. Sereda (78'), I. Kotov (84').

The match was played at Dirbtines Dangos Stadionas.