Tauras 3–0 Banga II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Tauras

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Banga II

4/5/2024

1 Lyga · Round 5FK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tauras67%

×Draw19%

Banga II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TaurasExpected goals in this matchBanga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.85

Tauras

2.16

Banga II

0.85

Tauras creates 154% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 43 away

2.19

creates per match

0.95

0.76

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Tauras

2.19

Banga II

0.95

allows per match

Tauras

0.76

Banga II

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par

Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Banga II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tauras or draw

86%

Tauras or Banga II

81%

Draw or Banga II

33%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+

43%

Banga II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals

88%

Tauras 2+ goals

63%

Tauras 3+ goals

36%

Banga II 1+ goals

57%

Banga II 2+ goals

21%

Banga II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)

83%

Banga II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 2.19 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.16

Banga II attack 0.95 + Tauras defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tauras scores more

67%

level

19%

Banga II scores more

14%

Tauras at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff