Taunton Town 0–0 Evesham United: Result & Stats

Taunton Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Evesham United

4/25/2026

League #60

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taunton Town55%

×Draw25%

Evesham United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taunton TownExpected goals in this matchEvesham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.83

Taunton Town

1.56

Evesham United

0.83

Taunton Town creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.25

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Taunton Town

1.25

Evesham United

0.67

allows per match

Taunton Town

1.00

Evesham United

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taunton Town+0.00on par

Evesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taunton Town ↓

Evesham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Taunton Town or draw

80%

Taunton Town or Evesham United

75%

Draw or Evesham United

45%

Winning margin

Taunton Town wins by 2+

29%

Evesham United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Taunton Town 1+ goals

79%

Taunton Town 2+ goals

46%

Taunton Town 3+ goals

21%

Evesham United 1+ goals

56%

Evesham United 2+ goals

20%

Evesham United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Taunton Town (draw refunded)

73%

Evesham United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taunton Town at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Evesham United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taunton Town attack 1.25 + Evesham United defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.56

Evesham United attack 0.67 + Taunton Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Taunton Town scores more

55%

level

25%

Evesham United scores more

20%

Taunton Town at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Taunton Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff