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Taubaté vs Linense — League #476 2026

Taubaté
Taubaté
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Linense
Linense
2/8/2025League #476League #476 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Taubaté42%
×Draw30%
Linense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taubaté
1.16
Linense
0.89

Taubaté creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Taubaté
1.00
Linense
0.77

allows per match

Taubaté
1.00
Linense
1.31

finishing

Taubaté+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Taubaté or draw
72%
Taubaté or Linense
70%
Draw or Linense
58%

Winning margin

Taubaté wins by 2+
18%
Linense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Taubaté 1+ goals
69%
Taubaté 2+ goals
32%
Taubaté 3+ goals
11%
Linense 1+ goals
59%
Linense 2+ goals
22%
Linense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Taubaté (draw refunded)
60%
Linense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Linense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté attack 1.00 + Linense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Linense attack 0.77 + Taubaté defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Taubaté scores more
42%
level
30%
Linense scores more
28%

Taubaté at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Taubaté will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taubaté vs Linense

Linense beat Taubaté 2-0 in League #476 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho in Taubaté, São Paulo.