Taubaté U20 2–2 União Suzano U20: Result & Stats

Taubaté U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

União Suzano U20

Unknown 59', 12'

Unknown 20', 9'

4/19/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Taubaté U2039%

×Draw26%

União Suzano U2035%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taubaté U20Expected goals in this matchUnião Suzano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Taubaté U20

1.36

União Suzano U20

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.13

creates per match

0.95

1.63

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Taubaté U20

1.13

União Suzano U20

0.95

allows per match

Taubaté U20

1.63

União Suzano U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taubaté U20+0.00on par

União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Taubaté U20 or draw

65%

Taubaté U20 or União Suzano U20

74%

Draw or União Suzano U20

61%

Winning margin

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+

18%

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Taubaté U20 1+ goals

74%

Taubaté U20 2+ goals

39%

Taubaté U20 3+ goals

16%

União Suzano U20 1+ goals

72%

União Suzano U20 2+ goals

37%

União Suzano U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)

52%

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté U20 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + Taubaté U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Taubaté U20 scores more

39%

level

26%

União Suzano U20 scores more

35%

Taubaté U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Taubaté U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

12'

20'

59'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff