Taubaté U20 3–1 União Mogi U20: Result & Stats

Taubaté U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

União Mogi U20

C. Daniel 87'

Marquinhos 42'

Maycon 11'

T. Sakuramoto Souza 19'

5/31/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Taubaté U2068%

×Draw17%

União Mogi U2015%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taubaté U20Expected goals in this matchUnião Mogi U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.21

Taubaté U20

2.67

União Mogi U20

1.21

Taubaté U20 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

1.63

allows per match

4.20

creates per match

Taubaté U20

1.13

União Mogi U20

0.80

allows per match

Taubaté U20

1.63

União Mogi U20

4.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taubaté U20+0.00on par

União Mogi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté U20 ↓

União Mogi U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Taubaté U20 or draw

85%

Taubaté U20 or União Mogi U20

83%

Draw or União Mogi U20

32%

Winning margin

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+

47%

União Mogi U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Taubaté U20 1+ goals

93%

Taubaté U20 2+ goals

74%

Taubaté U20 3+ goals

49%

União Mogi U20 1+ goals

70%

União Mogi U20 2+ goals

34%

União Mogi U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)

82%

União Mogi U20 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté U20 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

União Mogi U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + União Mogi U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.67

União Mogi U20 attack 0.80 + Taubaté U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Taubaté U20 scores more

68%

level

17%

União Mogi U20 scores more

15%

Taubaté U20 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Taubaté U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Maycon

19'

T. Sakuramoto Souza

42'

Marquinhos

87'

C. Daniel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff