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Taubaté U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Taubaté U20
Taubaté U20
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Santos U20
Santos U20
R. Jacinto 88'
Bernardo 43'
D. Santos 37'
Kenay Martins 34'
Kauan Pereira 10'
6/28/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Taubaté U2022%
×Draw25%
Santos U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taubaté U20
0.96
Santos U20
1.63

Santos U20 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Taubaté U20
1.13
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Taubaté U20
1.63
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Taubaté U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Taubaté U20 or draw
47%
Taubaté U20 or Santos U20
75%
Draw or Santos U20
78%

Winning margin

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+
8%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Taubaté U20 1+ goals
62%
Taubaté U20 2+ goals
25%
Taubaté U20 3+ goals
7%
Santos U20 1+ goals
80%
Santos U20 2+ goals
48%
Santos U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)
30%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté U20 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Taubaté U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Taubaté U20 scores more
22%
level
25%
Santos U20 scores more
53%

Santos U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Kauan Pereira
34'
Kenay Martins
37'
D. Santos
43'
Bernardo
88'
R. Jacinto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Taubaté U20 1–4 Santos U20

Santos U20 beat Taubaté U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 28, 2025.

Goals: Kauan Pereira (10'), Kenay Martins (34'), D. Santos (37'), Bernardo (43'), R. Jacinto (88').

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho in Taubaté, São Paulo.