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Taubaté U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Taubaté U20
Taubaté U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
Unknown 90+2', 85', 49', 6'
6/21/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Taubaté U2021%
×Draw23%
Novorizontino U2057%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taubaté U20
1.02
Novorizontino U20
1.85

Novorizontino U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Taubaté U20
1.13
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

Taubaté U20
1.63
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

Taubaté U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Taubaté U20 or draw
43%
Taubaté U20 or Novorizontino U20
77%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
79%

Winning margin

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+
7%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Taubaté U20 1+ goals
64%
Taubaté U20 2+ goals
27%
Taubaté U20 3+ goals
8%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
84%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
55%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)
27%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté U20 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + Taubaté U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Taubaté U20 scores more
21%
level
23%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
57%

Novorizontino U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
49'
85'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Taubaté U20 0–4 Novorizontino U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Taubaté U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 21, 2024.

Goals: ? (6', 49', 85', 90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho in Taubaté, São Paulo.