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Taubaté U20 vs Itapirense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Taubaté U20
Taubaté U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
V. Lemos 77'
Vinicius Alemao 31'
5/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Taubaté U2047%
×Draw23%
Itapirense U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taubaté U20
1.80
Itapirense U20
1.38

Taubaté U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Taubaté U20
1.13
Itapirense U20
1.12

allows per match

Taubaté U20
1.63
Itapirense U20
2.47

finishing

Taubaté U20+0.00on par
Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Taubaté U20 or draw
70%
Taubaté U20 or Itapirense U20
77%
Draw or Itapirense U20
53%

Winning margin

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+
26%
Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Taubaté U20 1+ goals
83%
Taubaté U20 2+ goals
54%
Taubaté U20 3+ goals
27%
Itapirense U20 1+ goals
75%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
40%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)
62%
Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté U20 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.80

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Taubaté U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Taubaté U20 scores more
47%
level
23%
Itapirense U20 scores more
30%

Taubaté U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Taubaté U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Vinicius Alemao
77'
V. Lemos
90+4'
G. Baptista
90+4'
G. Baptista

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Taubaté U20 0–2 Itapirense U20

Itapirense U20 beat Taubaté U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: Vinicius Alemao (31'), V. Lemos (77').

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho in Taubaté, São Paulo.