Taubaté U20 0–2 Ferroviária U20: Result & Stats

Taubaté U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ferroviária U20

Unknown 90+1', 28'

7/5/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Taubaté U2025%

×Draw24%

Ferroviária U2050%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taubaté U20Expected goals in this matchFerroviária U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.67

Taubaté U20

1.11

Ferroviária U20

1.67

Ferroviária U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

1.13

creates per match

1.70

1.63

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Taubaté U20

1.13

Ferroviária U20

1.70

allows per match

Taubaté U20

1.63

Ferroviária U20

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taubaté U20+0.00on par

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Taubaté U20 or draw

50%

Taubaté U20 or Ferroviária U20

76%

Draw or Ferroviária U20

75%

Winning margin

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+

10%

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Taubaté U20 1+ goals

67%

Taubaté U20 2+ goals

30%

Taubaté U20 3+ goals

10%

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals

81%

Ferroviária U20 2+ goals

50%

Ferroviária U20 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté U20 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Taubaté U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Taubaté U20 scores more

25%

level

24%

Ferroviária U20 scores more

50%

Ferroviária U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff