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Tatung vs Tainan City — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Tatung
Tatung
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Tainan City
Tainan City
9/14/2024Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 15Fu Jen Catholic University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tatung31%
×Draw22%
Tainan City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatung
1.50
Tainan City
1.91

Tainan City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 56 away

creates per match

Tatung
1.86
Tainan City
2.57

allows per match

Tatung
1.25
Tainan City
1.14

finishing

Tatung+0.00on par
Tainan City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatung ↓

Tainan City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tatung or draw
53%
Tatung or Tainan City
78%
Draw or Tainan City
69%

Winning margin

Tatung wins by 2+
14%
Tainan City wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tatung 1+ goals
78%
Tatung 2+ goals
44%
Tatung 3+ goals
19%
Tainan City 1+ goals
85%
Tainan City 2+ goals
57%
Tainan City 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Tatung (draw refunded)
39%
Tainan City (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatung at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Tainan City away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatung attack 1.86 + Tainan City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tainan City attack 2.57 + Tatung defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tatung scores more
31%
level
22%
Tainan City scores more
47%

Tainan City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatung vs Tainan City

Tainan City beat Tatung 5-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Fu Jen Catholic University in New Taipei City.