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Tatran Sedlčany vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
3/8/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 16Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlcany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tatran Sedlčany36%
×Draw22%
Spartak Soběslav43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Sedlčany
1.78
Spartak Soběslav
1.95

Spartak Soběslav creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tatran Sedlčany
1.88
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Tatran Sedlčany
2.16
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Sedlčany ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tatran Sedlčany or draw
57%
Tatran Sedlčany or Spartak Soběslav
78%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
64%

Winning margin

Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
83%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
53%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
26%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
86%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
58%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
46%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Sedlčany at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.88 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tatran Sedlčany scores more
36%
level
22%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
43%

Spartak Soběslav at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Sedlčany vs Spartak Soběslav

Spartak Soběslav beat Tatran Sedlčany 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlcany.