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Tatran Sedlčany vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
PST
15:00
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
4/26/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 23Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany (Sedlčany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tatran Sedlčany46%
×Draw23%
Sokol Čížová31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Sedlčany
1.79
Sokol Čížová
1.44

Tatran Sedlčany creates 24% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tatran Sedlčany
1.88
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Tatran Sedlčany
2.16
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Sedlčany ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tatran Sedlčany or draw
69%
Tatran Sedlčany or Sokol Čížová
77%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
54%

Winning margin

Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
25%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
83%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
53%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
76%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
42%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
60%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Sedlčany at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.88 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tatran Sedlčany scores more
46%
level
23%
Sokol Čížová scores more
31%

Tatran Sedlčany at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tatran Sedlčany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tatran Sedlčany host Sokol Čížová

April 26, 2020: Tatran Sedlčany take on Sokol Čížová in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tatran Sedlčany host Sokol Čížová at Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany (Sedlčany).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.