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Sokol Čížová vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
FT
4 – 1
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
9/28/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 8Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová78%
×Draw12%
Tatran Sedlčany10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
3.61
Tatran Sedlčany
1.31

Sokol Čížová creates 176% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
90%
Sokol Čížová or Tatran Sedlčany
88%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
22%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
60%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
97%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
87%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
67%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
73%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
38%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
89%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 3.61

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
78%
level
12%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
10%

Sokol Čížová at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Čížová 4 – 1 Tatran Sedlčany

Sokol Čížová beat Tatran Sedlčany 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).