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Tatran Rakovník vs Neratovice-Byškovice — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
PST
14:00
Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 19Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník14%
×Draw17%
Neratovice-Byškovice69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.05
Neratovice-Byškovice
2.55

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 143% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.62

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.32

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
31%
Tatran Rakovník or Neratovice-Byškovice
83%
Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice
86%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
5%
Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
65%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
28%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
9%
Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
92%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
72%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
17%
Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.05

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
14%
level
17%
Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
69%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tatran Rakovník vs Neratovice-Byškovice — Match Preview

Tatran Rakovník face Neratovice-Byškovice on March 29, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tatran Rakovník host Neratovice-Byškovice at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.