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Neratovice-Byškovice vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
FT
2 – 0
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
8/21/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 4Stadion Neratovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Neratovice-Byškovice81%
×Draw12%
Tatran Rakovník7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.88
Tatran Rakovník
0.71

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 306% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 24 away

creates per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.37
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
0.66
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neratovice-Byškovice ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Neratovice-Byškovice or draw
93%
Neratovice-Byškovice or Tatran Rakovník
88%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
19%

Winning margin

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
61%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
94%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
78%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
54%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
51%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
16%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
92%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neratovice-Byškovice at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 2.37 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.88

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
81%
level
12%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
7%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neratovice-Byškovice 2 – 0 Tatran Rakovník

Neratovice-Byškovice beat Tatran Rakovník 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Neratovice in Neratovice.