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Tatran Rakovník vs Meteor Praha — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
FT
0 – 3
Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
10/30/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník17%
×Draw18%
Meteor Praha64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.25
Meteor Praha
2.52

Meteor Praha creates 102% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Meteor Praha
1.57

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Meteor Praha
1.72

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Meteor Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Meteor Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
36%
Tatran Rakovník or Meteor Praha
82%
Draw or Meteor Praha
83%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
7%
Meteor Praha wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
71%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
36%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
13%
Meteor Praha 1+ goals
92%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
71%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
21%
Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Meteor Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Meteor Praha defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.25

Meteor Praha attack 1.57 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
17%
level
18%
Meteor Praha scores more
64%

Meteor Praha at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Rakovník vs Meteor Praha

Meteor Praha beat Tatran Rakovník 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník in Rakovník.