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Tatran Rakovník vs Louny — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
PST
15:00
Louny
Louny
6/14/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 30Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník23%
×Draw20%
Louny57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.41
Louny
2.32

Louny creates 65% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 70 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Louny
1.16

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Louny
2.04

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Louny+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Louny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
43%
Tatran Rakovník or Louny
80%
Draw or Louny
77%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
10%
Louny wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
76%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
41%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
17%
Louny 1+ goals
90%
Louny 2+ goals
67%
Louny 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
28%
Louny (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Louny away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Louny defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Louny attack 1.16 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
23%
level
20%
Louny scores more
57%

Louny at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tatran Rakovník host Louny

June 14, 2020: Tatran Rakovník take on Louny in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tatran Rakovník host Louny at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.