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Louny vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Louny
Louny
CANC
12:30
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
5/8/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 15Louny UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Louny63%
×Draw18%
Tatran Rakovník19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louny
2.49
Tatran Rakovník
1.29

Louny creates 93% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 24 away

creates per match

Louny
1.60
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Louny
1.84
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Louny+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louny ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Louny or draw
81%
Louny or Tatran Rakovník
82%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
37%

Winning margin

Louny wins by 2+
42%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Louny 1+ goals
92%
Louny 2+ goals
71%
Louny 3+ goals
45%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
72%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
37%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Louny (draw refunded)
77%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louny at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louny attack 1.60 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.49

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Louny defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Louny scores more
63%
level
18%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
19%

Louny at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Louny host Tatran Rakovník

May 8, 2021: Louny take on Tatran Rakovník in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Louny host Tatran Rakovník at Louny UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.