Tatran Rakovník 2–3 Kladno: Result & Stats

Tatran Rakovník

FT

2 – 3

Kladno

9/25/2021

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 9Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník12%

×Draw15%

Kladno73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran RakovníkExpected goals in this matchKladno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.75

Tatran Rakovník

1.04

Kladno

2.75

Kladno creates 164% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 55 away

0.78

creates per match

2.02

3.48

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník

0.78

Kladno

2.02

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník

3.48

Kladno

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Kladno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Kladno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw

27%

Tatran Rakovník or Kladno

85%

Draw or Kladno

88%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+

4%

Kladno wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals

65%

Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals

28%

Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals

9%

Kladno 1+ goals

93%

Kladno 2+ goals

75%

Kladno 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)

14%

Kladno (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Kladno away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Kladno defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kladno attack 2.02 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more

12%

level

15%

Kladno scores more

73%

Kladno at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kladno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff