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Tatran Rakovník vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
PST
15:00
Dobříš
Dobříš
4/26/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 23Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník38%
×Draw20%
Dobříš42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
2.10
Dobříš
2.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
58%
Tatran Rakovník or Dobříš
80%
Draw or Dobříš
62%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
21%
Dobříš wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
88%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
62%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
35%
Dobříš 1+ goals
89%
Dobříš 2+ goals
65%
Dobříš 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
47%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
38%
level
20%
Dobříš scores more
42%

Dobříš at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dobříš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tatran Rakovník host Dobříš

April 26, 2020: Tatran Rakovník take on Dobříš in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tatran Rakovník host Dobříš at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.