Dobříš 1–1 Tatran Rakovník: Result & Stats

Dobříš

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Tatran Rakovník

9/28/2019

4. liga - Divizie B · Round 8UMT Dobříš (Dobříš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš61%

×Draw19%

Tatran Rakovník20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobříšExpected goals in this matchTatran Rakovník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.40

Dobříš

2.50

Tatran Rakovník

1.40

Dobříš creates 79% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.63

creates per match

0.75

2.04

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Dobříš

1.63

Tatran Rakovník

0.75

allows per match

Dobříš

2.04

Tatran Rakovník

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Tatran Rakovník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw

80%

Dobříš or Tatran Rakovník

81%

Draw or Tatran Rakovník

39%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+

40%

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals

92%

Dobříš 2+ goals

71%

Dobříš 3+ goals

45%

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals

75%

Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals

41%

Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)

75%

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dobříš scores more

61%

level

19%

Tatran Rakovník scores more

20%

Dobříš at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dobříš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff