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Tatran Rakovník vs Český Brod — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
FT
0 – 3
Český Brod
Český Brod
10/16/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 12Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník16%
×Draw19%
Český Brod65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.04
Český Brod
2.28

Český Brod creates 119% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Český Brod
1.08

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Český Brod
1.31

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Český Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Český Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
35%
Tatran Rakovník or Český Brod
81%
Draw or Český Brod
84%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
6%
Český Brod wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
65%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
28%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
9%
Český Brod 1+ goals
90%
Český Brod 2+ goals
66%
Český Brod 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
20%
Český Brod (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Český Brod away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Český Brod defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Český Brod attack 1.08 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
16%
level
19%
Český Brod scores more
65%

Český Brod at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tatran Rakovník 0 – 3 Český Brod

Český Brod beat Tatran Rakovník 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník in Rakovník.