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Tatran Rakovník vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
Pens
3 – 3
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
9/21/20194. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 7Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník12%
×Draw15%
Arsenal Česká Lípa73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.04
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.81

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 170% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.14

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.31

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
27%
Tatran Rakovník or Arsenal Česká Lípa
85%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
88%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
4%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
65%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
28%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
9%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
94%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
76%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
14%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 2.14 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
12%
level
15%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
73%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Rakovník vs Arsenal Česká Lípa

Tatran Rakovník and Arsenal Česká Lípa drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník (Rakovník).