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Tatran Rakovník vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
FT
0 – 5
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
8/28/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 5Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník14%
×Draw17%
Aritma Praha69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.08
Aritma Praha
2.55

Aritma Praha creates 136% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Aritma Praha
1.63

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Aritma Praha
1.38

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
31%
Tatran Rakovník or Aritma Praha
83%
Draw or Aritma Praha
86%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
5%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
66%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
29%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
10%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
92%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
72%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
17%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Aritma Praha defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Aritma Praha attack 1.63 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
14%
level
17%
Aritma Praha scores more
69%

Aritma Praha at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Tatran Rakovník 0–5 Aritma Praha

Aritma Praha beat Tatran Rakovník 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník in Rakovník.