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Tatran Prešov W vs Trenčín W — I Liga - Women 2020

Tatran Prešov W
Tatran Prešov W
AWD
3 – 0
Trenčín W
Trenčín W
11/12/2025I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tatran Prešov W61%
×Draw17%
Trenčín W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov W
2.96
Trenčín W
1.79

Tatran Prešov W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov W
2.37
Trenčín W
1.64

allows per match

Tatran Prešov W
1.95
Trenčín W
3.55

finishing

Tatran Prešov W+0.00on par
Trenčín W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov W ↓

Trenčín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov W or draw
78%
Tatran Prešov W or Trenčín W
83%
Draw or Trenčín W
39%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov W wins by 2+
41%
Trenčín W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov W 1+ goals
95%
Tatran Prešov W 2+ goals
79%
Tatran Prešov W 3+ goals
55%
Trenčín W 1+ goals
83%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
53%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov W (draw refunded)
73%
Trenčín W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov W at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

Trenčín W away — creates 1.64, concedes 3.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov W attack 2.37 + Trenčín W defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 2.96

Trenčín W attack 1.64 + Tatran Prešov W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tatran Prešov W scores more
61%
level
17%
Trenčín W scores more
22%

Tatran Prešov W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tatran Prešov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tatran Prešov W vs Trenčín W — Match Preview

Tatran Prešov W face Trenčín W on November 12, 2025 in this I Liga - Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.